WHILST Victoria was the only state to record a fall in population in the 12-month period preceding June 30, Hamilton’s population has remained relatively the same.

In figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) earlier this month, Australia’s population growth rate has slowed down considerably due to the international border closure in March 2020, brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Population counts in Australia are calculated using births, minus deaths, plus net overseas migration.

The statistics show Australia's population numbers in the year ending 30 June 2021, notwithstanding international border closures, grew by 46,000 people (0.2 per cent).

Contrary to the national trend, for the same period, Victoria’s population fell by 44,700, with a negative growth rate of -0.7 per cent.

28,240 people left Victoria between March and June 2021 alone, the single largest number drop in any one quarter since ABS data began reporting in June 1981.

Conversely, net interstate migration was the major contributor to Queensland’s population increase, justifying the rationale that Victorians left en-masse to the sunny state to avoid lengthy COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions.

Based on data captured up to March 2021, the Federal Government’s Centre for Population predicts that for the 2021-22 period, Melbourne is forecast to record a net outflow of around 32,000 people, from which it can be assumed that the differential in Victoria’s overall outflow figures, minus Melbourne’s forecast figures, have moved to regional areas.

Although it has not been immune from all negative impacts of COVID-19, Hamilton’s low case numbers have made it an attractive alternative to reside.

Apart from a small number of very recent cases and the outbreak following a music concert at the Hamilton Golf Club last month, Hamilton has largely been isolated from the pandemic.

Hamilton Elders Real Estate senior property manager, Penelope Cotterill has observed local property owners taking advantage of a recent spike in property prices and selling to people wanting to move out of the city.

“We’ve seen a number of people wanting to get out of Melbourne and away from the spread of the pandemic, ongoing lockdowns, and restrictions, and they are prepared to pay a higher price for a home in the country.”

However, she has noted that many investment properties that were previously rented out, have now either been sold, or landlords have decided to move into them, which has contributed to limited rental property availability, compounding a housing shortage in Hamilton.

Likewise, Southern Grampians Real Estate property manager Rachael Kinna, has observed a change in Hamilton’s population as well as a significant increase in sales prices and demand in the property market over the past two years.

“We believe that Hamilton’s population has most definitely increased because we have seen an influx of buyers moving to the district,” she said.  

“The rental market over the past 18 months – two years has also seen an increase in demand and rent return has also increased.”

Whilst this is a positive for local homeowners who are able to sell, it has forced many lower income and younger prospective homebuyers out of the market, and they have to live somewhere. 

Lack of rental homes in Hamilton is reflected in statistics commissioned by Southern Grampians Shire from Melbourne consultant company, Urban Enterprise.

The consultant’s figures show the number of registered rental bonds available in Hamilton was around 850 in 2021, a significant decline compared to 2018 where there were well over 1000.

This is at odds with the trend in the rest of Regional Victoria.

Despite the pandemic prompting migration out of Melbourne to Regional Victoria, the ABS figures show that Hamilton’s population has remained largely the same, albeit a minor increase, for the five years preceding the pandemic period. 2021 figures are not yet available.

Hamilton population figures via the ABS. Photo: SUPPLIED.     

This leads to another question about the new normal. 

If people are leaving the city to live in rural and regional areas, and there’s a been an increase to the number of new dwellings built in Hamilton, why are there still so many unfilled job vacancies?

Part of the reason for that is that many people moving to Hamilton are already retired, contributing to the town’s ageing population.

There is also an increase in the trend of farmland consolidation by individuals or conglomerates.

Owners are increasingly choosing to live in town instead of on their farm, contributing to Hamilton’s population rise, while at the same time there’s a decrease in overall population in the Southern Grampians Shire region.

For example, where once three farms might have existed within a certain area, a trend in landowners or vendor conglomerates consolidating farming land into an individual entity has changed the population landscape.

Use of cutting-edge labour techniques has also impacted physical workforce needs, thus reducing employment opportunities, and as such not bringing that cohort of workers to the region.

Whilst not a new phenomenon, employees being forced to work from home throughout the pandemic has also played a part in the demographic of homeowners and where they live.

For many industries, such as agriculture or for skilled artisans, working from home is common, however, for employers that previously found this unacceptable, COVID-19 may have forced them to reconsider it as a legitimate option for their staff.

The Federal Government’s Productivity Commission paper, released in September 2021, found that when employers were forced to adapt to staff working from home, employers changed their minds and became more positive about the feasibility and benefits of remote work.

Still, attracting and retaining employees in Hamilton is an ongoing challenge and not unique to rural employers who often contend with additional recruiting barriers, compared to city employers.

Case studies undertaken by the Department of Families, Fairness and Housing recognised that for rural and regional employers, recruitment can be very expensive. Aside from the usual process of advertising a job vacancy, country employers also need to “sell the location and associated lifestyle as much as they need to sell the role and the organisation.”

For many potential candidates, accepting a new job in the country also means making a significant decision to move and a drastic change in lifestyle, however, the pandemic could be seen as the changing catalyst.

Southern Grampians Shire director of planning and development, and principal conduct officer, Andrew Goodsell, noted that in Hamilton, there has been an increase in demand for housing and the number of dwellings built.

“Encouragingly, the number of new homes going up has increased from a mean average from 12 per year in Hamilton between 2011 and 2014, to an average of 28 dwellings per annum since 2015,” he said. 

“In 2021 the figure is likely to be around 60 new homes, allowing for gaps or lags in time between approvals, construction, and residents moving into homes,” he said. 

Mr Goodsell agreed that there were multiple variabilities that contributed to the population number fluctuation, such as a change in farming practices and the centralisation of their operations.

“The demographic of the incoming population is relevant and often comprises empty nester couples with no dependents, which does not significantly increase local populations,” he said.

“There are a large number of existing households that are single person homes (well above the Victorian average at about one in every three households), that typically accommodate older residents.”

Overall, when comparing with Victoria’s population shift, Hamilton has performed well with an increase of around 0.2 per cent per annum for the past few years.

“We’ve still had growth and we’re not going backwards in line with the significant population decline Victoria has experienced. This means we’re doing well,” Mr Goodsell said.