LA NIÑA appears to be fully entrenched into the summer outlook according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), but the latest indications were its effects will not be as severe as past events.

Murdoch University climate expert, Dr Jatin Kala said the 2021-22 La Niña event was not predicted to be as strong as the 2010-11 event, and there were still variables in the Indian Ocean to watch.

 "It is critically important to realize that not all La Niña (or El Niño) events are the same, and hence, the impacts will differ from one La Niña (or El Niño) year to the other, and there are other factors at play,” he said.

“ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is just one important part of the puzzle.”

A recent update on La Niña from the BOM has somewhat moderated the effect of the phenomenon, with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) recently returning to a near-neutral value and the models showing ENSO will likely return to neutral by May after peaking in January.

In its early December update the BOM said it wasn’t expecting a strong La Niña year.

“In general, the models anticipate that this La Niña will be short-lived, and of weak to moderate strength though there is some variation in predicted peak strength between the various models,” the statement said.

“It should be noted that the strength of an event doesn't necessarily equal the strength of its effect.

“For 2021–22 to be considered a La Niña year, the event will have to be sustained for at least three months.”

Nevertheless, the forecast is still of interest to farmers and the release of The Australian Agriculture Outlook 2022 by RuralBank on Tuesday provides some indication as to how primary producers may be affected.

From the context of a “bumper year in 2021” the first half of 2022 outlook was considered to have “the industry well positioned”.

“Favourable seasonal conditions continued in the back half of 2021 across most regions with wet conditions set to continue into the new year, particularly across the east coast, with a La Niña weather pattern now established,” the report said.

“This will combine with the ongoing recovery from COVID-19 to benefit farmers, with improved production and demand expected as a result.

“This will further support the rebuilding of livestock numbers translating into increased beef, sheepmeat, wool and dairy production in 2022.

“Another year of above average winter crop and horticulture production is also expected as a result of the wet conditions, though quality may be impacted.

“Unfavourable trade conditions remain a factor weighing on the outlook for some commodities with improvement in Australia’s relationship with China yet to be seen.”

The report analysed the performance of six industries – cattle, horticulture, cropping, dairy, sheep and wool, plus the broader economy – to provide a forecast of what can be expected in 2022.

Highlights are the record prices for canola, strong horticultural production with the favourable weather, Australian beef exports expected to increase by 15 per cent, supply and demand for lamb expected to increase and recovery for the dairy market also expected.

The report did state “labour shortages remain a concern, however the reopening of both state and international borders should see these worker shortages ease over the coming months”.

For updates on La Niña visit bom.gov.au/climate/enso/.

To view the Australian agriculture outlook 2022 visit ruralbank.com.au/outlook.