LOCALS will join almost 4.4 million fellow Victorians this weekend, in determining the leadership of their state for the next four years.

Saturday, 26 November is official polling day for the 2022 State Election and, as demonstrated in May's federal election where a swathe of independents claimed seven seats from major parties and turned the historically blue-ribbon seat of Wannon marginal, any outcome is completely unpredictable.

Despite the Casterton area’s local electorate – the district of Lowan – being one of the safest seats in Victoria’s Lower House, more candidates than ever are contesting it in a state-wide influx of election hopefuls.

According to the Victorian Electoral Commission, a total of 1194 candidates are contesting this election – including 740 candidates for the 88 Lower House seats and 454 for the Upper House.

Seven candidates are in the running to serve as Lowan’s MP, while the Upper House’s Western Victoria Region will be contested by 57 candidates across 22 group voting tickets.

It is the first time in Lowan’s 20-year history in which more than five candidates will be contesting it and the first time in 16 years with more than 50 candidates for Western Victoria.

In 2018, Lowan maintained its status as a safe Nationals seat after the party had suffered a major swing against it in 2014, when Emma Kealy won it in her first run at the job, following the retirement of long-standing Nationals MP, Hugh Delahunty.

The seat swung almost completely back towards Ms Kealy, with around two thirds of primary votes, while Labor ­also enjoyed a small swing in its favour to claim 20.11 per cent.

Independent Barry Shea picked up 6.46 per cent of primary votes after Katrina Rainsford had won more than 14 per cent of the 2014 vote, to come the closest to the two major parties.

The Greens had a swing of more than three per cent against them, while the Victorian Socialists picked up only a quarter of the votes the Country Alliance had in 2014 – the only two parties to contest the seat in just one of the last two elections.

Western Victoria Region, which stretches from Geelong and the outer western suburbs of greater Melbourne to the South Australian Border, has always been represented by Labor MPs Jaala Pulford and Gayle Tierney since it was created in 2006, although Ms Pulford will not be contesting this year.

Labor received nearly 40 per cent of the Upper House vote with a 4.13 per cent swing in its favour, while the Coalition suffered a swing against it of more than seven per cent.

The Liberal Party had also had two members for the electorate until 2018 and has since only had one.

Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party and the Animal Justice Party have also held a seat each over the last four years, with positive swings in the last election.

Other parties which had positive swings but fell short of winning at least one seat included the Liberal Democrats and the now-defunct Aussie Battler and Voluntary Euthanasia parties.

As of Monday, 21 November, a total of 817,896 people had voted early across the state and 9739 had returned a postal vote by Saturday 19.

Timid turnouts

THE 2018 election saw a decline in voting levels, with the lowest voter participation rate since before the turn of the millennium.

The VEC said 90.16 per cent of eligible voters participated in casting a Lower House ballot and 90.14 per cent cast an Upper House ballot – leaving more than 400,000 enrolled voters state-wide, who did not turn out to lodge a ballot.

Of the five state elections before it, the 1999 election had the lowest participation rate at 92.38 per cent casting in both houses.

Turnout was down in every Lower House electorate, ranging from decreases of as little as one per cent to nearly six per cent.

In Lowan, little more than 40,000 voters turned out at 92.5 per cent of enrolled voters – nearly 2.5 per cent down from 2014.

At this year’s election, nearly 4.4 million people statewide are enrolled to vote.

Not voting carries a fine of $92.

VEC data also showed the 2018 election saw the highest number of informal Lower House votes of the last six and the highest number of informal Upper House votes since 2006.

Of those who did cast a Lower House, 5.83 per cent were informal – and the figure has consistently risen since 1999, when it stood at 3.02 per cent.

Around 2000 votes in Lowan – nearly five per cent – were informal.

Nearly four per cent of Upper House votes were informal in 2018.

This weekend, just over 51,000 residents are eleigible vote to elect their single candidate in the Lower House seat of Lowan, while 571,121 voters are eligible to choose the five representatives for Western Victoria Region in the Upper House.

Stay informed

MISINFORMATION over the way elections are run has been a target for the VEC in recent weeks to ensure Saturday’s election is free, fair and understood by voters.

The role misinformation plays in influencing elections has been under a fierce spotlight due to other events overseas in the last two years and the Australian Electoral Commission, the body which oversees Federal elections, had reported an increase in the level of misinformation in the lead-up to May’s election.

Both the AEC and VEC have misinformation registers available on their websites, which list common misleading claims relevant to elections in Australia, as well as advice on how to determine whether an online post about an election is legitimate.

Among the more common snippets of misinformation listed on the VEC’s website are claims vote-counting software from companies such as Dominion and Scytl will be used, unvaccinated people will not be able to vote and pencils are used at voting centres to change votes.

Dominion and other companies behind electronic voting systems have been targeted in widespread fraud claims in the United States over the last few years, but the VEC said Lower House ballot papers were counted by hand, with supervision; independently-audited software was only used for Upper House ballot papers.

The VEC also said Covid-19 vaccination status would not impact the ability to vote and pencils were offered at voting centres as they would not dry out, get jammed or smudge – although voters were still welcome to bring their own pen to use.

People who see claims related to the election online are advised to check whether it comes from a reputable source and is up to date.

It is also recommended to check for an authorisation statement, which can indicate the reliability of the information.