EARLIER this week, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) decided to shift its climate outlook to La Niña watch, despite the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) currently being neutral.

With some early signs that a La Niña might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024, the BOM said when the watch criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has subsequently developed around 50 per cent of the time.