IT’S dry and things are difficult on the farm – everyone knows that.

The need for containment of stock and the feeding of hay and grains are in the forefront of farmer thinking.

With the strategies in place, the questions remain: What feeds give the best value and what is available?

The general concern is that supplies are dwindling and that prices are rocketing up.

With these queries in mind The Spectator undertook an analysis of the market over the past three years in order to see how four fodder components, lupins, wheat, barley, oats and pasture hay, compared historically and how they are lining up at present.

Monthly prices since the first week of July 2021 and up to the present were analysed firstly at dollars per tonne in Hamilton, then at indicated dollars per 100 Megajoules of Metabolisable Energy (MJME) energy and finally at indicated dollars per kilogram of Crude Protein (CP).

These rates (100 MJME & Kg.of CP) were adopted for clarity, the key message being the comparative costs rather than their individual price.

In other words; where’s the best value?

Prices, energy & protein

TWO of the main components of ruminant feeds are Energy and Crude Protein.

These are present in varying proportions in the various stock feeds, enabling an analysis of the cost per unit of each component.

Analysis is based on dry matter (DM) content which is about 90 per cent for the grains and 85 per cent for pasture hay.

Of the feeds, lupins are the most protein rich (30 per cent) while they have a similar energy content to wheat and barley.

Oats and pasture hay are both poorer feeds as indicated in Table 1.

The past three years have seen some variability in the prices of lupins, barley and oats but a marked increase in the prices of both oats and pasture hay.

This is summarised in Table 2 with the history displayed in Graph 1.

The most remarkable increases are those of oats and pasture hay over the past three years rather than the last three months.

Of particular interest is the increase in the price of oats relative to wheat and barley since oats are essentially a poorer feed than wheat or barley.

Moving on to Metabolisable Energy (Graph 2), prices show a slightly different picture.

The cost per 100 MJME has risen uniformly for hay, oats and lupins but has been remarkably stable for wheat and barley.

This suggests that, based on the price of ME with other things being equal, wheat and barley represent the best value.

But the picture with regards to crude protein (CP) varies again. 

Graph 3 shows that while lupins have been the cheapest source of protein, wheat and barley as well as pasture hay are currently close in price to each other. 

However, hay’s relative CP price has increased over the three years, with an increasing rate of escalation starting in late 2023.

Given its bulk and lower ME value, the current competitiveness of oats is doubtful.

While there are other hay and grain types available, the most notable feature of this analysis is the hike in prices paid for oats and pasture hay and the poorer nutritional value for money now represented for these categories.

Market outlook

NO one can predict prices, however it is worthwhile to discuss the short-term prospects.

A well-respected local stock feed compounder & supplier (who did not want to be named) made the following points to The Spectator:

• There is grain available including maize which is in good supply.

• Wheat and barley (grain) are available

• Oaten hay is virtually unobtainable.

• There is some vetch hay available.

• Cereal straw is being used in compound feeds.

• Pasture hay is very scarce and is being traded between farmers

• Demand for feed is very strong

• Prices are firming

Maize has Metabolisable Energy of an average 13 MJME/Kg of Dry Matter, which is the same as oats and barley, while its Crude Protein is nine per cent of DM on average, the same as that of oats.

Price data for maize was not available for the Hamilton district.

In a similar vein, hay supplier, Green & Gold’s Victoria Dohle told The Spectator that, “Pasture hay is virtually unobtainable but there is some of very poor quality. Oat and Vetch hay of top-shelf quality is available but in limited supply.  The market is volatile, and it is not possible to provide price quotes.”

Given the difficult season and the variation in nutritional values between feeds, it appears that farmers should seek advice as to the best feed mixes in terms of bang for the buck which, like rainfall, can vary a lot.

Post script: The content of this article is for general information, it is not agricultural advice.

Price data is from the Weekly Times.  Statistical analysis, tables and graphs have been designed & prepared by The Spectator.