AFAC (the Australian and New Zealand National Council for fire and emergency services) has released the Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Summer 2024 and it’s not looking good for Western Victoria.

The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Summer 2024 shows an increased risk of fire for large areas of Australia, including Victoria’s south-west.

An increased chance of above-average rainfall this summer is predicted for much of the eastern states, and parts of SA and WA.

Maximum and minimum summer temperatures are likely, or very likely, to be above average across most jurisdictions.

Large areas of the south-west and far west of Victoria, parts of the north-east, and the Mornington Peninsula are highlighted.

CFA District 5 Commander Rainer Kiessling said this summer period was shaping up as a very bad season for fire and warned south-west Victorians to be aware of the risks.

“Be prepared,” he said.

“If possible, get yourself some firefighting equipment – the way this season is going at the moment, it is going to be very bad.

He also said to be vigilant about checking any equipment that can be used in the event of a fire.

“Check pumps and have a backup plan in the event of a power failure,” Commander Kiessling said.

“Make a decision about preparing now to stay or go – decide whether to stay and defend your property or go to a safe place – the CFA website will direct you to the best spot to go to depending on your location.”

He said local CFA had been conducting extensive planning and preparedness for the season.

“That includes equipment upgrades and training,” Commander Kiessling said.

“We are prepared as we possibly can be at the moment, however, we are very worried about readily-available water, and we would ask that anyone with private firefighting gear to make contact with the local fire brigade.

“Especially in regard to a communications plan and how they can best support us at a fire so that we may best integrate them into a coordinated fire attack.”

Commander Kiessling said he couldn’t stress enough about the importance of having a level of preparedness and understanding of the season ahead.

He also said any visitors to the region should be prepared to cancel travel plans.

“Fire and the impact of fire can disrupt travel plans,” Commander Kiessling said.

“I would direct to them to the CFA website and the Victorian Emergency app to stay informed and to have a plan and obviously avoid travel in fire affected areas.

“If there is a fire, we would ask people to stay away.”

Commander Kiessling said it was also worth considering investing in your own private firefighting gear.

He said the grassland curing (how dry everything is) for the 2019/20 fire danger season – which was a very bad fire season – was shaping up to be more advanced this year.

Likewise, areas across the southern parts of the nation, including WA’s southeastern coastline and central west, extending to the parts of the SA lower coastal south-east region and lower Eyre Peninsula have an increased risk of fire. 

 South-west Gippsland has an increased risk of fire, as do central northern and central southern NSW.

 To the north, fire risk is increased in long-unburnt areas in the southern half of the NT and stretching up north of the Barkly Highway and to the Queensland border.

Fires currently burning in the Savanna management zone are expected to ease with monsoon conditions commencing. 

 Northern Australia broadly received average to above average rainfall, but southern Australian received below average rainfall for the cool season and into spring.

As a result, soil moisture is below average across much of southern and eastern Australia.

Mean temperatures for April to October were the third highest on record since 1910.

For almost all jurisdictions, temperature means continue to be above average to very much above average.

 AFAC chief executive, Rob Webb said, “No matter where you live or travel this season, everyone can play an important role in bushfire safety this summer by being prepared and staying alert to warnings and advice.”

 “The dry winter and spring period across southern Australia mean the landscape is well primed for bushfires.

Communities should be ready for bushfires and have a plan in place.

“We hope the rains come but it makes sense to plan as if they don’t.

“Local fire authorities will be monitoring bushfire risk this season so you can stay up to date and ready to act if there is an emergency.”

Communities were encouraged to be vigilant and stay alert this summer even if in areas of Australia showing normal risk of fire.

Catastrophic fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons.

The Bureau of Meteorology also confirmed that Victoria was likely to have warmer-than-usual summer temperatures, both during the day and overnight.

Above-average summer rainfall was also likely for most of the state.

The highest chance of above-average rainfall was expected during December, where wetter conditions were likely across most of Victoria, except some western parts of the state.

Most of the state has been forecast to have rainfall in the typical range for January.