THE Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has predicted a record high $81 billion in agricultural production for 2021-22.
According to ABARE’s March Edition Crop Report, agricultural commodities are forecast to reach record highs in 2021-22, but a return to normality is on the way.
ABARES executive director, Dr Jared Greenville said that agricultural commodities had performed even better than initial forecasts.
“The gross value of agricultural production is forecast to be a record $81 billion in 2021–22, beating the last year's record by over $12 billion,” he said.
“This is an unprecedented result, and it can be put down to a combination of record high crop production, and the highest prices (in real terms) for Australian agricultural produce in 32 years.
“Australia has harvested what will be the most valuable winter crop ever” and that it “smashed our expectations back in December.
“Now that the winter crop harvest is complete, the national winter crop production is estimated to reach a record 61.9 million tonnes.
“This is being supported by record production for wheat, barley and canola.”
Whilst winter crop production in Victoria is forecast to decrease by 11 per cent in 2021–22 to 8.7 million tonnes, the total is still 25 per cent above the 10-year-average to 2020–21.
Above average production is driven by high winter crop yields which are the third highest on record – the high yields resulted from ideal spring growing conditions and dry weather during harvest.
Crop prospects in Victoria were supported by ideal conditions during spring, more than offsetting less favourable conditions earlier in the season.
Following the late start to the winter cropping season, yield prospects were hindered by below average rainfall during late winter.
Yield prospects improved substantially following average to above average rainfall over spring that assisted grain filling.
Crop harvest in Victoria was supported by below average rainfall during December, following rain late in the growing season.
Reports of quality downgrades are limited as a result.
Dr Greenville was upbeat about the way summer crops were shaping up nationally, forecast to be the fourth highest ever.
“At the moment, summer crop production in Australia is forecast to rise by 64 per cent in 2021–22 to 5.3 million tonnes, one of the highest on record,” he said.
“We also estimate that the area sown for summer crops to have risen by 48 per cent to 1.5 million hectares, which is 35 per cent above the 10-year average to 2020–21.
“For the year ahead, there is a lot to be optimistic about. According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (March to May) issued by the Bureau of Meteorology in February, rainfall during autumn is more likely to be above average in most cropping regions.
“While we know that La Niña can’t last, we can still expect good autumn rains to finish off the summer crops and support winter crop plantings in 2022–23.”
Dr Greenville said despite the total value of agriculture, fisheries and forestry production expected to reach a record of almost $87 billion in 2021-22, he remained cautious about the future.
“We cannot expect such good conditions to continue indefinitely,” he said.
“We are expecting the gross value of agricultural production to fall by around six per cent to $76 billion next financial year, which is still the second highest on record.
“With production at record highs and high prices, increases in income are likely to far outweigh the additional pressure of higher input costs for fuel, fertiliser, chemicals and labour.
“But we will need to keep an eye on farm costs as commodity prices come back to normal.”
The crop report can be found at awe.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook.
