THE climate outlook for the next few months appears to be in contrast to the recent spring in the South West, with the Bureau of Meteorology issuing its first climate outlook update for 2023.

Local rainfall is expected to be only slightly above average for the next three months, with about normal average maximum temperatures for the remainder of the summer.

These localised indicators are somewhat in contrast to the northern and eastern parts of Australia, as La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific but is slowly weakening.

However, while ocean temperatures have warmed in recent weeks, atmospheric indicators remain at La Niña levels.

Long-range forecasts suggest that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will continue to warm towards El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral levels over the coming weeks.

Some change in atmospheric patterns towards neutral levels is also possible.

As long-range forecast accuracy is generally lower at this time of year, ENSO outlooks that extend through autumn should be viewed with caution.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is strongly positive and is likely to be positive until at least mid-January.

During summer, a positive SAM increases the chance of above-average rainfall for eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria and north-east Tasmania.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation has been in the western Pacific since late December and is forecast to move into the Atlantic in the coming days.

This may cause an easing in trade wind strength and increase cloudiness near the dateline and this could potentially weaken some indicators of La Niña.

Sea surface temperatures remain warmer than average in the western Pacific, much of the Maritime Continent, and around northern Australia. Warmer Australian waters, especially in the tropics, can result in greater evaporation, humidity, cloudiness, and rainfall.