THE Bureau of Meteorology earlier this week updated its long-term climate outlook with a return to average rainfall conditions more likely in the south-west after a very wet spring in 2022.

Although the outlook for March is a slightly higher (60 per cent) chance of above-average rainfall, April and May are forecast less likely (about 40 per cent) to exceed the average.

With temperatures, the outlook for March is for a roughly 50 per cent chance of exceeding median maximum temperatures and for April and May the chance rising to over 65 per cent; in layman’s terms this means likely an average March and the winter break to be delayed into at least mid-May.

La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific and the Bureau’s ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) Outlook reflects this.

While Pacific Ocean temperatures have returned to neutral, atmospheric indicators remain slow to respond and remain at typical La Niña levels.

All of the seven international climate models surveyed by the Bureau anticipate central Pacific sea-surface temperatures will remain ENSO-neutral well into the southern hemisphere autumn.

While the models suggest there is an increased risk of El Niño developing in mid to late-2023, the accuracy when forecasting through autumn is low, and ENSO outlooks that extend past autumn should be viewed with caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which was negative late last year and significantly influenced the wet spring is now neutral, and in any case has little influence on the Australian climate while the monsoon trough is in the southern hemisphere at this time of year (typically December to April).

Outlooks for the IOD beyond April made at this time of the year also have low accuracy.