RELOCATION rates of city dwellers to the Southern Grampians Shire Council (SGSC) has halved for the three months to June 2022, compared to the same period in 2021, according to an updated Regional Movers Index report.
Local government demography and relocation data from 10 million customers of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), who partnered with the Regional Australia Institute (RAI), was used to compile the fresh analysis.
Relocations to the SGSC were down by 45 per cent this quarter compared to the previous quarter, and when comparing the June 2022 quarter with June 2021, there was a 50 per cent reduction in city dwellers seeking a tree change to the shire.
In the Glenelg Shire, there was an 18 per cent decline in relocations compared to the previous quarter, however, the June quarters for 2022 and 2021 trended similarly to that of SGSC, with relocations down 47 per cent.
Warrnambool City Council had no change between the first and second quarters for 2022 and only a -1 per cent drop in relocations when comparing the June quarters for 2022 with 2021.
In regional areas for each state for the latest financial year, each state picked up close to a third of net migration inflows into their respective regions with both NSW and Queensland up by 33 per cent, however, regional Victoria lagged a little in comparison and was only up by 22 per cent.
In the previous edition of the Regional Movers Index it was revealed that Millennials (aged 25-39) comprised the biggest cohort of people moving from capital cities to the regions, attributed to the pandemic magnifying existing trends, and this remained unchanged this quarter.
Unsurprisingly, there appears to be a decline in consumer confidence in regional areas, with inflation and interest rate concerns continuing to overshadow household budgets.
CommSec senior economist, Ryan Felsman, published an economic report on August 10, using the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index which showed a fall of 4.5 per cent to 80.3 points, the lowest level since April 2020, and the monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment from a survey conducted in the week August 1-4, which fell 3.0 per cent in August – the ninth consecutive monthly decline – to a two-year low of 81.2 points.
Mr Felsman reported that the Consumer Confidence index showed a drop in confidence in regional or rural areas by 5.0 per cent in August to a record low of 72.8 points, the lowest since January 1996.
He attributed this partly to flooding on Australia’s east coast and heightened worries about the threat of imported foot-and-mouth disease to the agricultural industry.
Mr Felsman reported that across the nation, historic-low unemployment and a large pool of excess savings continues to support household consumption, however, waning consumer confidence threatens to slow retail spending growth at the end of 2022.
Further, Mr Felsman said retail turnover eased in both NSW and Victoria in June as home price declines accelerated in both Sydney and Melbourne, with Sydney suffering the sharpest fall in home values in around 40 years.
In terms of spending, Mr Felsman’s report stated that household spending, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that household spending rose by 10.2 per cent over the year to June.
Spending increased by the most on transport (up 22.7 per cent), followed by hotels, cafes, and restaurants (up 17.1 per cent), and clothing and footwear (up 16.3 per cent).
By state, spending rose the most in Queensland (up 12.4 per cent), followed by Victoria (up 11.8 per cent) and Tasmania (up 10.8 per cent) through the year.
Mr Felsman considered Australia’s regional economy was in good shape overall with record low unemployment and near record high job vacancies and household savings that supports consumer spending.
