El Niño end raises questions about long-range forecasts

STARK differences between the Bureau of Meteorology’s recent long-range forecasts (for example, the prediction for December 2023 rainfall across Australia on the left) and actual rainfall totals (right) have prompted The Nationals leader, David Littleproud to call into question their reliability for farmers to make business management decisions. Images: SUPPLIED.

By Mark Rabich

April 23, 2024 | 10:00 AM

EARLIER this week the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in a statement declared the El Niño has ended and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has returned to neutral, with the expectation the indicator would remain stable until “at least July 2024”.

Following the announcement, The Nationals leader, David Littleproud said the reputation of the BOM appeared to be suffering following summer with the majority of the country having above average rainfall, despite a forecast in October last year of “below average rainfall across much of Australia excluding parts of the southeast”.