MEAT and Livestock Australia (MLA) is predicting a rise in herd numbers on the back of lower female slaughter rates and positive bull sale results.

The female slaughter rate tracks the number of females processed compared to the number of females retained in herds.

The lowest number of females was processed in the June quarter for the decade – with the national female slaughter rate (FSR) sitting at 44 per cent. MLA’s current projection is for a 5.6 per cent rise in national numbers in 2022.

State by State the FSR is: Queensland 35.1 per cent; South Australia 34.7 per cent, and New South Wales was 41.7 per cent for the second quarter.

MLA Senior Market Information Analyst, Ripley Atkinson, said the state figures highlighted producers rebuilding attitudes.

“We’re seeing producers with a retaining a higher percentage of females on farm which will drive a longer-term positive outlook for the strength of the rebuild with larger calf drops for each season moving forwards,” Mr Atkinson said.

“Across large parts of the eastern seaboard, on average the 2022 spring bull sale season, clearance rates and numbers of bulls offered and sold have also been high.

“The correlative relationship between producers purchasing more bulls during this selling season and the lower FSR’s demonstrates producers either intend to or have females available to be joined to increase their herd numbers on farm.”

Whilst at a general level, averages across most sales have been higher, demonstrating medium term confidence in the industry for producers to invest in genetics and improve the performance of their herds.

Looking ahead, Mr Atkinson said: “The trends point towards a strengthening of the herd rebuild as female retention on farm rises in line with increased offerings and clearance rates of bulls purchased by producers to join to the retained females.

“The effects of this retention of females and larger numbers of females joined won’t be fully appreciated or felt until these calf drops reach processor weights from grass or complete their feedlot programs. The results promote confidence for the medium term in both availability of supply and producers’ outlook.”